Through Monday, Nov. 4, 83 million Americans had already cast their ballots in the 2024 election. On Tuesday, Nov. 5 - Election Day - millions more will join them. Their votes this year will matter ...

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished professor of history at American University and has predicted ...

On Thursday morning, Trump's probability of winning was 63% or higher on Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, and two major ...

For example, the 538 model adjusts its forecasts based on polls plus what some in the ... In other words, presidential elections are rare, contingent, one-off events. Predicting their outcome ...

according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average. Important Reminder: Presidential Polls Have Frequently Been Wrong And there is a lot of speculation on how they’re wrong this year ...

Could we run into this situation in the 2024 presidential race? It’s possible, though pretty unlikely: According to 538’s presidential forecast, there’s only about a 1-in-300 chance that ...

President Joe Biden flipped six of the seven ... according to the same poll. FiveThirtyEight also considers North Carolina a "toss-up" as of Wednesday, with Trump given a 53 percent chance of ...

538's final presidential election forecast. Katie Marriner and Amina Brown for 538 And that's why we've been saying the race isn't necessarily going to be close just because the polls are.