From war-driven inflation to rising debt and market risks, JPMorgan’s CEO outlines what could shake the economy, and what it means for your wallet.

The US economy may be showing early signs of stagflation as services activity slows, inflation remains sticky at 3 per cent, and energy-driven price pressures rise amid the Iran conflict

Another decent ISM activity print is consistent with the US economy growing at a 2.5% annual pace in 2026. The concern is that the jobs component dropped sharply in March and prices paid jumped, suggesting growing business caution in the wake of heightened economic and market angst tied to the conflict in the Middle East.

Weaker growth and higher inflation expected

TS Lombard sees either a recession, an inflation surge, or an economic re-acceleration coming from the Middle East supply chain damage.

The labor market has been erratic to start 2026, creating over 100,000 jobs one month and then contracting the next. But Federal Reserve officials aren't alarmed, with one central banker suggesting zero job growth could still be considered healthy.

Michael Green, Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management, says that the latest U.S. non-farm payroll data does not account for the birth/death adjustment. He explains that the actual data is likely an inverse of what the job report showed.

A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in the month of March with the unemployment rate at 4.4%. NBC News' Brian Cheung and Investopedia